Taming typhoons
Taming typhoons
Updated 11:33pm (Mla time) Dec 06, 2004
Inquirer News Service
Editor's Note: Published on page A12 of the December 7, 2004 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer.
"It (Hurricane Isabelle) reminds me of Cleopatra... Really pretty, but kind of sinister." -- American scientist Hugh Willoughby while admiring a swirling blue-gray satellite image of "Isabelle," which killed 17 and caused billions of dollars in damage in September 2003.
VIEWED from the top or in satellite images, typhoons, the Pacific counterparts of North America's hurricanes, may truly be beautiful, but they certainly are very deadly and destructive. The typhoon is one of nature's most awesome meteorological phenomena.Filipinos are very familiar with the death and destruction caused by typhoons. Because the Philippines lies right smack in their path, Filipinos have almost become inured to seeing 20 to 25 tropical storms hit the country every year. They've become so accustomed to typhoons that sometimes they fail to adequately prepare for it.
But we have to think seriously about typhoons and how they can be deflected or moderated. And how can we cope with the awesome, elemental forces of nature? Sometime ago, before martial law, a congressman introduced a measure that became popularly known as "a bill seeking to abolish typhoons." It was laughed at in public forums and laughed out of Congress. Actually, it had a serious intention: it sought to start studies to mitigate the effects of typhoons.
Now weather modification, and specifically the deflection or moderation of hurricanes and tropical storms, is the object of serious scientific studies. One of those engaged in such studies is American scientist Hugh Willoughby. He believes hurricane mitigation represents the next frontier of knowledge in meteorology. Forecasting is already far more sophisticated than it was 20 years ago.
The immediate challenge is preparing for hurricanes and trying to minimize devastation. Researchers have discovered that some simple adjustments like planting certain trees and using certain nails in construction can make a big difference in the level of damage caused by a hurricane.
Another researcher, Ross N. Hoffman, and his team are investigating how they could nudge hurricanes into more benign paths or otherwise defuse them. Successful computer simulations of hurricanes carried out the past few years suggest that modification could some day be feasible, he said.
In one experiment, Project Stormfury, researchers tried to tame hurricanes using cloud-seeding techniques, which at that time (the 1960s) were the only practical way to affect weather. The project sought to slow the development of a hurricane by augmenting precipitation in the first rain band outside the eye wall -- the ring of clouds and high winds that encircle the eye of the storm. The Stormfury results were at best ambiguous and similar experiments have not been tried since.
What makes the research into hurricanes and typhoons very difficult is their high degree of unpredictability. The atmosphere's great sensitivity to tiny influences and the rapid compounding of small errors in weather-forecasting models are what make long-range forecasting (more than five days in advance) extremely difficult. We all know how imperfect weather forecasts are.
Still, the application of chaos theory and the use of computer simulation may yet offer hope that some day weather modification, and particularly the mitigation of the fury of typhoons, may become a reality. (A chaotic system is one that appears to behave randomly but is in fact governed by rules, Hoffman says.)
The Philippines is one of several countries that would benefit greatly from typhoon mitigation research. In the past 10 years, 4,274 persons have been killed, 7,602 injured and about 3 million left homeless by typhoons. These storms have caused almost P70 billion in damage to public and private property and crops.
Bicol and Eastern Visayas, which lie directly in the path of typhoons, are among our poorest regions. The government and the people seem to be engaged forever in a Sisyphean struggle in these areas: this year they repair the damage caused by typhoons to infrastructure and the following year they are destroyed again by even more powerful storms.
Typhoons are a great and recurring obstacle to the country's economic development. Academic and scientific institutions and Congress would be doing the country a lot of good if they could convince other countries that experience a lot of typhoons and hurricanes, like the United States, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong, to undertake a joint research on the taming of these terrible, awesome and destructive giants of nature.
Updated 11:33pm (Mla time) Dec 06, 2004
Inquirer News Service
Editor's Note: Published on page A12 of the December 7, 2004 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer.
"It (Hurricane Isabelle) reminds me of Cleopatra... Really pretty, but kind of sinister." -- American scientist Hugh Willoughby while admiring a swirling blue-gray satellite image of "Isabelle," which killed 17 and caused billions of dollars in damage in September 2003.
VIEWED from the top or in satellite images, typhoons, the Pacific counterparts of North America's hurricanes, may truly be beautiful, but they certainly are very deadly and destructive. The typhoon is one of nature's most awesome meteorological phenomena.Filipinos are very familiar with the death and destruction caused by typhoons. Because the Philippines lies right smack in their path, Filipinos have almost become inured to seeing 20 to 25 tropical storms hit the country every year. They've become so accustomed to typhoons that sometimes they fail to adequately prepare for it.
But we have to think seriously about typhoons and how they can be deflected or moderated. And how can we cope with the awesome, elemental forces of nature? Sometime ago, before martial law, a congressman introduced a measure that became popularly known as "a bill seeking to abolish typhoons." It was laughed at in public forums and laughed out of Congress. Actually, it had a serious intention: it sought to start studies to mitigate the effects of typhoons.
Now weather modification, and specifically the deflection or moderation of hurricanes and tropical storms, is the object of serious scientific studies. One of those engaged in such studies is American scientist Hugh Willoughby. He believes hurricane mitigation represents the next frontier of knowledge in meteorology. Forecasting is already far more sophisticated than it was 20 years ago.
The immediate challenge is preparing for hurricanes and trying to minimize devastation. Researchers have discovered that some simple adjustments like planting certain trees and using certain nails in construction can make a big difference in the level of damage caused by a hurricane.
Another researcher, Ross N. Hoffman, and his team are investigating how they could nudge hurricanes into more benign paths or otherwise defuse them. Successful computer simulations of hurricanes carried out the past few years suggest that modification could some day be feasible, he said.
In one experiment, Project Stormfury, researchers tried to tame hurricanes using cloud-seeding techniques, which at that time (the 1960s) were the only practical way to affect weather. The project sought to slow the development of a hurricane by augmenting precipitation in the first rain band outside the eye wall -- the ring of clouds and high winds that encircle the eye of the storm. The Stormfury results were at best ambiguous and similar experiments have not been tried since.
What makes the research into hurricanes and typhoons very difficult is their high degree of unpredictability. The atmosphere's great sensitivity to tiny influences and the rapid compounding of small errors in weather-forecasting models are what make long-range forecasting (more than five days in advance) extremely difficult. We all know how imperfect weather forecasts are.
Still, the application of chaos theory and the use of computer simulation may yet offer hope that some day weather modification, and particularly the mitigation of the fury of typhoons, may become a reality. (A chaotic system is one that appears to behave randomly but is in fact governed by rules, Hoffman says.)
The Philippines is one of several countries that would benefit greatly from typhoon mitigation research. In the past 10 years, 4,274 persons have been killed, 7,602 injured and about 3 million left homeless by typhoons. These storms have caused almost P70 billion in damage to public and private property and crops.
Bicol and Eastern Visayas, which lie directly in the path of typhoons, are among our poorest regions. The government and the people seem to be engaged forever in a Sisyphean struggle in these areas: this year they repair the damage caused by typhoons to infrastructure and the following year they are destroyed again by even more powerful storms.
Typhoons are a great and recurring obstacle to the country's economic development. Academic and scientific institutions and Congress would be doing the country a lot of good if they could convince other countries that experience a lot of typhoons and hurricanes, like the United States, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong, to undertake a joint research on the taming of these terrible, awesome and destructive giants of nature.
posted by Dante at 11:35 PM
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